Best-Fit Probability Distributions and Return Periods for Maximum Monthly Rainfall in Bangladesh

• Published in: Climate (Basel) Vol. 6; no. 1; p. 9
• Main Authors: Md Ashraful Alam, Kazuo Emura, Craig Farnham, Jihui Yuan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 31-01-2018
• Subjects: goodness-of-fit test; maximum monthly rainfall; probability distributions; return period
• ISSN: 2225-1154
• DOI: 10.3390/cli6010009

The study of frequency analysis is important to find the most suitable model that could anticipate extreme events of certain natural phenomena e.g., rainfall, floods, etc. The goal of this study is to determine the best-fit probability distributions in the case of maximum monthly rainfall using 30 years of data (1984–2013) from 35 locations in Bangladesh by using different statistical analysis and distribution types. Commonly used frequency distributions were applied. Parameters of these distributions were estimated by the method of moments and L-moments estimators. Three goodness-of-fit test statistics were applied. The best-fit result of each station was taken as the distribution with the lowest sum of the rank scores from each of the three test statistics. Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson type 3 and Log-Pearson type 3 distributions showed the largest number of best-fit results. Among the best score results, Generalized Extreme Value yielded the best-fit for 36% of the stations and Pearson type 3 and Log-Pearson type 3 each yielded the best-fit for 26% of the stations. The more practical result of this paper was that the 10-year, 25-year, 50-year and 100-year return periods of maximum monthly rainfall were calculated for all locations. The result of this study can be used to develop more accurate models of flooding risk and damage.