Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

• Published in: Climatic change Vol. 109; no. Suppl 1; pp. 445 - 463
• Main Authors: Westerling, A. L., Bryant, B. P., Preisler, H. K., Holmes, T. P., Hidalgo, H. G., Das, T., Shrestha, S. R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01-12-2011; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Atmospheric research; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate models; Combustion; Density; Dynamic tests; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Ecosystems; Emission analysis; Emissions; Environmental impact; Fire protection; Fluid dynamics; Footprints; Forest & brush fires; Global climate; Housing; Hydroclimate; Hydrodynamics; National parks; Pathways; Population growth; Precipitation; Wildfires; Wildland-urban interface; United States > US; California; Fire Severity; National Park Service; Burned Area; Fire Occurrence; Generalize Pareto Distribution
• ISSN: 0165-0009; 1573-1480
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0329-9

Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques CM3, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 and National Center for Atmospheric Research PCM1); three scenarios for future population growth and development footprint; and two thresholds for defining the wildland-urban interface relative to housing density. Results were assessed for three 30-year time periods centered on 2020, 2050, and 2085, relative to a 30-year reference period centered on 1975. Increases in wildfire burned area are anticipated for most scenarios, although the range of outcomes is large and increases with time. The increase in wildfire burned area associated with the higher emissions pathway (SRES A2) is substantial, with increases statewide ranging from 36% to 74% by 2085, and increases exceeding 100% in much of the forested areas of Northern California in every SRES A2 scenario by 2085.