Phenological Predictability Index in BRAHMS: a tool for herbarium-based phenological studies

• Published in: Ecography (Copenhagen) Vol. 35; no. 4; pp. 289 - 293
• Main Authors: Proença, Carolyn E. B., Filer, Denis L., Lenza, Eddie, Silva, Juliana S., Harris, Stephen A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01-04-2012; Blackwell Publishing; Blackwell; John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subjects: Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Biological and medical sciences; Climate change; Disease models; Flowering; Fruiting; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; Herbaria; Phenology; Plants; Software notes; Specimens; Taxa; Herbarium; Phenology; Predictability
• ISSN: 0906-7590; 1600-0587
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07329.x

Phenological Predictability Index (PPI) is a tool for analysing phenological patterns incorporating herbarium data within BRAHMS (Botanical Research and Herbarium Management System). PPI produces a maximum-activity period and associated event predictability index between ~0 and 1. Simple, monthly random sampling showed the ideal number of unique records (event/month/year) is > 50. PPI correctly predicted the maximum-activity flowering month for seven out of eight species studied in the field, and was positively correlated (R² = 0.610, p = 0.02) with phenophase length, even using suboptimum numbers of unique records.