Determining endemic values of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iranian Fars province by retrospectively detected clusters and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis

• Published in: Asian Pacific journal of tropical biomedicine Vol. 9; no. 9; pp. 359 - 364
• Main Authors: Zare, Marjan, Rezaianzadeh, Abbas, Tabatabaee, Hamidreza, Faramarzi, Hossain, Aliakbarpour, Mohsen, Ebrahimi, Mostafa
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Medknow Publications and Media Pvt. Ltd 01-09-2019; Department of Epidemiology, School of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran%Colorectal Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Science, Shiraz, Iran%Research Center for Health Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran%Department of Community Medicine, Medical School, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran%Department of Communicable Diseases, Shiraz University of Medical Science, Shiraz, Iran; Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications
• Subjects: Analysis; Cities and towns; Cutaneous leishmaniasis; endemic values; fars province; Forecasts and trends; Leishmaniasis; receiver operating characteristic curve; retrospective clusters; Software; Time; Iran; Taiwan; Cutaneous leishmaniasis; Retrospective clusters; Receiver operating characteristic curve; Endemic values; Fars province
• ISSN: 2221-1691; 2588-9222
• DOI: 10.4103/2221-1691.267636

To determine the endemic values of cutaneous leishmaniasis in different cities of Fars province, Iran. Methods: Totally, 29201 cases registered from 2010 to 2015 in Iranian Fars province were selected, and the endemic values of cutaneous leishmaniasis were determined by retrospective clusters derived from spatiotemporal permutation modeling on a time-series design. The accuracy of the values was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. SPSS version 22, ArcGIS, and ITSM 2002 software tools were used for analysis. Results: Nine statistically significant retrospective clusters (P<0.05) resulted in finding seven significant and accurate endemic values (P<0.1). These valid endemic scores were generalized to the other 18 cities based on 6 different climates in the province. Conclusions: Retrospectively detected clusters with the help of ROC curve analysis could help determine cutaneous leishmaniasis endemic values which are essential for future prediction and prevention policies in the area.