Evaluating the Simulation of CONUS Precipitation by Storm Type in E3SM

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 50; no. 12
• Main Authors: Reed, K. A., Stansfield, A. M., Hsu, W.‐C., Kooperman, G. J., Akinsanola, A. A., Hannah, W. M., Pendergrass, A. G., Medeiros, B.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 28-06-2023; American Geophysical Union (AGU); Wiley
• Subjects: Climate; Climate models; Configurations; Cyclones; Earth; Earth system model; energy exascale earth system model; Extratropical cyclones; extremes; Future precipitation; high resolution; Hurricanes; Mathematical models; Mesoscale convective systems; Mesoscale phenomena; Modelling; multiscale modeling framework; Precipitation; Rainfall intensity; Simulation; Storms; Tropical cyclones; United States > US
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2022GL102409

Conventional low‐resolution (LR) climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1), have well‐known biases in simulating the frequency, intensity, and timing of precipitation. Approaches to next‐generation E3SM, whether the high‐resolution (HR) or multiscale modeling framework (MMF) configuration, improve the simulation of the intensity and frequency of precipitation, but regional and seasonal deficiencies still exist. Here we apply a methodology to assess the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) to simulated precipitation in E3SMv1‐HR and E3SMv1‐MMF relative to E3SMv1‐LR. Across the United States, E3SMv1‐MMF provides the best simulation in terms of precipitation accumulation, frequency and intensity from MCSs and TCs compared to E3SMv1‐LR and E3SMv1‐HR. All E3SMv1 configurations overestimate precipitation amounts from and the frequency of ETCs over CONUS, with conventional E3SMv1‐LR providing the best simulation compared to observations despite limitations in precipitation intensity within these events.
Plain Language Summary
Precipitation has direct and major impacts on society, both locally and globally, and thus understanding how precipitation may change in the future is important. Climate models, or mathematical representations of the Earth system, are the tools‐of‐choice, albeit imperfect for projecting future changes in precipitation. Precipitation occurs in many different environments and is produced by a variety of weather phenomena in the United States, including tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). This work acts to quantify the characteristics of precipitation in configurations of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model by these storm‐types to better inform future development of the climate model and produce more accurate projections of future precipitation.
Key Points
Multiscale modeling framework E3SMv1 captures precipitation from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) better than low‐ and high‐resolution
High‐resolution and multiscale modeling framework E3SMv1 improve tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation
All configurations capture realistic extratropical cyclone precipitation in contrast to TC and MCS, and conventional low‐resolution E3SMv1 does best