Opinion convergence in location: A spatial version of the Delphi method

• Published in: Technological forecasting & social change Vol. 78; no. 9; pp. 1565 - 1578
• Main Authors: Di Zio, Simone, Pacinelli, Antonio
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Elsevier Inc 01-11-2011; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Consultancy services; Convergence; convergence of opinions; Decisions; Delphi; Delphi method; Experts; fractal dimension; GIS; Judgment; Judgments; K function; Opinions; Panels; Prototypes; Respect; Simulation; Studies; Technological forecasting; GIS; fractal dimension; K function; Delphi; convergence of opinions
• ISSN: 0040-1625; 1873-5509
• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.09.010

This paper proposes a modified version of the Delphi method, starting from the assumption that in many situations the convergence of opinions can be considered in a spatial context. The Spatial Delphi we suggest is based, like the classical Delphi, on the judgments of experts, and it is useful in the consultations for decision and/or forecast purposes, provided that they concern matters of spatial location. The basis for the questionnaire is a map, on which each expert provides, as answer(s), one or more opinion-points, i.e., locations that, according to their opinion, are best for a specific purpose. We propose a method for narrowing the area of convergence along a multi-step procedure so that the final result of the consultation is a small portion of the initial territory with respect to the initial area considered. Besides a simulation study, we report also a prototype application with a panel of twelve experts.