Modelling the transmission of dengue, zika and chikungunya: a scoping review protocol

• Published in: BMJ open Vol. 13; no. 9; p. e074385
• Main Authors: Romero-Leiton, Jhoana P, Acharya, Kamal Raj, Parmley, Jane Elizabeth, Arino, Julien, Nasri, Bouchra
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London BMJ Publishing Group LTD 19-09-2023; BMJ Publishing Group
• Series: Protocol
• Subjects: Chikungunya virus; Dengue fever; Epidemics; Epidemiology; FDA approval; Guillain-Barre syndrome; Infections; Mosquitoes; Parameter estimation; Population; Public health; Tropical diseases; Vaccines; Zika virus; Southeast Asia; Africa
• ISSN: 2044-6055; 2044-6055
• DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-074385

IntroductionAedes mosquitoes are the primary vectors for the spread of viruses like dengue (DENV), zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV), all of which affect humans. Those diseases contribute to global public health issues because of their great dispersion in rural and urban areas. Mathematical and statistical models have become helpful in understanding these diseases’ epidemiological dynamics. However, modelling the complexity of a real phenomenon, such as a viral disease, should consider several factors. This scoping review aims to document, identify and classify the most important factors as well as the modelling strategies for the spread of DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV.Methods and analysisWe will conduct searches in electronic bibliographic databases such as PubMed, MathSciNet and the Web of Science for full-text peer-reviewed articles written in English, French and Spanish. These articles should use mathematical and statistical modelling frameworks to study dengue, zika and chikungunya, and their cocirculation/coinfection with other diseases, with a publication date between 1 January 2011 and 31 July 2023. Eligible studies should employ deterministic, stochastic or statistical modelling approaches, consider control measures and incorporate parameters’ estimation or considering calibration/validation approaches. We will exclude articles focusing on clinical/laboratory experiments or theoretical articles that do not include any case study. Two reviewers specialised in zoonotic diseases and mathematical/statistical modelling will independently screen and retain relevant studies. Data extraction will be performed using a structured form, and the findings of the study will be summarised through classification and descriptive analysis. Three scoping reviews will be published, each focusing on one disease and its cocirculation/co-infection with other diseases.Ethics and disseminationThis protocol is exempt from ethics approval because it is carried out on published manuscripts and without the participation of humans and/or animals. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presentations in conferences.