Potential ozone production following convective transport based on future emission scenarios

• Published in: Atmospheric environment (1994) Vol. 30; no. 4; pp. 667 - 672
• Main Authors: Ellis, W.G., Thompson, A.M., Kondragunta, S., Pickering, K.E., Stenchikov, G., Dickerson, R.R., Tao, W.-K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 1996; Elsevier Science
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Atmospheric pollution; Exact sciences and technology; Pollutants physicochemistry study: properties, effects, reactions, transport and distribution; Pollution; convection; Ozone; predicted emissions; cloud outflow; Hydrocarbon; Atmospheric pollution forecasting; Troposphere; Trace compound; Air pollution; Pollutant emission; Modeling; Convection; Boundary layer
• ISSN: 1352-2310; 1873-2844
• DOI: 10.1016/1352-2310(95)00318-5

Current and projected (up to 2050 A.D.) concentrations of boundary layer trace gases, including NO
x
, CO, CH
4, and several nonmethane hydrocarbons were redistributed throughout the troposphere in a simulation of a central U.S. squall line using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) convective cloud model. Vertical profiles of the redistributed trace gases were used in a one-dimensional photochemical model to determine the vertical profile of the potential production of 0
3. Several different emission scenarios were considered. In the case where NO
x
emissions were doubled along with an increase in CO, CH
4, and NMHC's, the middle troposphere showed an enhancement of 41% for O
3 production relative to the 1985 case. For the reduction scenario, where NO
x
emissions were decreased by a factor of two, the O
3 produced in the middle troposphere was reduced by 50%. Given the role of convection in the regional O
3 budget of the central U.S. during the summertime, our results suggest that substantial changes in emissions could bring about changes in mid-tropospheric O
3 large enough to be observed by satellite remote sensing.