Final size and partial distance estimate for a two-group SEIRD model

• Published in: Journal of mathematical biology Vol. 86; no. 4; p. 56
• Main Authors: Melo, Alison M. V. D. L., Santos, Matheus C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01-04-2023; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Applications of Mathematics; Approximation; Brazil - epidemiology; Cities; Contamination; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; COVID-19 - epidemiology; Disease transmission; Epidemic models; Epidemics; Humans; Infections; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical and Computational Biology; Mathematical models; Mathematics; Mathematics and Statistics; Pandemics; Respiratory syncytial virus; Viral diseases; Brazil; Distance of solutions; 92D30; Final size; 92D25; Latency period; Epidemic mathematical model; 34C60
• ISSN: 0303-6812; 1432-1416
• DOI: 10.1007/s00285-023-01892-x

In this paper we consider a SEIRD epidemic model for a population composed by two groups of individuals with asymmetric interaction. Given an approximate solution for the two-group model, we estimate the error of this approximation to the unknown solution to the second group based on the known error that the approximation has with respect to the solution to the first group. We also study the final size of the epidemic for each group. We illustrate our results with the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the New York County (USA) for the initial stage of the contamination, and in the cities of Petrolina and Juazeiro (Brazil).