Real estate price estimation in French cities using geocoding and machine learning

• Published in: Annals of operations research Vol. 308; no. 1-2; pp. 571 - 608
• Main Authors: Tchuente, Dieudonné, Nyawa, Serge
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Springer US 2022; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Algorithms; Business and Management; Combinatorics; Error analysis; Estimation theory; Forecasting; Geographical locations; Geospatial data; Low level; Machine learning; Mathematical models; Neural networks; Operations research; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Prices; Prices and rates; Real estate; Real property; S.I. : Artificial Intelligence in Operations Management; Theory of Computation; France; Real estate market; French cities; Machine learning; Geocoding; Automated valuation models; Artificial intelligence; Investment
• ISSN: 0254-5330; 1572-9338
• DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-03932-5

This paper reviews real estate price estimation in France, a market that has received little attention. We compare seven popular machine learning techniques by proposing a different approach that quantifies the relevance of location features in real estate price estimation with high and fine levels of granularity. We take advantage of a newly available open dataset provided by the French government that contains 5 years of historical data of real estate transactions. At a high level of granularity, we obtain important differences regarding the models’ prediction powers between cities with medium and high standards of living (precision differences beyond 70% in some cases). At a low level of granularity, we use geocoding to add precise geographical location features to the machine learning algorithm inputs. We obtain important improvements regarding the models’ forecasting powers relative to models trained without these features (improvements beyond 50% for some forecasting error measures). Our results also reveal that neural networks and random forest techniques particularly outperform other methods when geocoding features are not accounted for, while random forest, adaboost and gradient boosting perform well when geocoding features are considered. For identifying opportunities in the real estate market through real estate price prediction, our results can be of particular interest. They can also serve as a basis for price assessment in revenue management for durable and non-replenishable products such as real estate.