Seasonal variability of the observed and the projected daily temperatures in northern Saudi Arabia

• Published in: Climatic change Vol. 119; no. 2; pp. 333 - 344
• Main Author: Athar, H.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01-07-2013; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: 21st century; Arabia; Atmospheric Sciences; Circulation; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate models; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Computation; Computer simulation; Datasets; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; General circulation models; Global warming; Meteorology; Probability density functions; Probability distribution; Probability distribution functions; Quality control; RCM; Seasonal variations; Seasons; Temperature; Trends; Saudi Arabia; Arabian Peninsula; Asia; Saudi Arabia; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; International Civil Aviation Organization; Base Period; Regional Climate Model; time series analysis; Century 21st; General circulation models; Regional scope; Climate models; Climate prediction; Atlantic multidecadal oscillation; Daily mean temperature; Atmospheric temperature; Arid region; 1990-2000; 2000-2010; Minimum temperature; Maximum temperature; seasonal variations; 1980-1990; climate change; probability density function
• ISSN: 0165-0009; 1573-1480
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0717-4

Variability in the observed daily temperature for the 31-year period (1978–2008) is studied for northern Saudi Arabia (nSA) by computing the probability distribution functions (PDFs) on a seasonal basis. The 31-year base period is divided into three decades and the results for the first (1978–1987) and the last decade (1999–2008) are presented. When averaged over all seasons, mean values of the observed decadal PDFs depict a positive shift from the first to last decade in the minimum, mean, and maximum temperature of 0.81 °C, 1.03 °C, and 1.25 °C, respectively. The daily temperature datasets from a regional climate model (RCM) and two versions of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) are compared with the observed daily temperature datasets. The RCM is driven by re-analysis data for the historical period and by the HadCM3 model for the future, while the AOGCMs used are the GFDL CM2.0 and 2.1 models, with both HadCM3 and the GFDL simulations corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The average shifts from 1978–1987 to 1999–2008 in the mean value of the PDFs for the minimum, mean and maximum temperature are 0.63 °C, 0.54 °C and 0.45 °C, respectively, for the RCM, and 0.97 °C, 0.97 °C and 0.96 °C, respectively, for the AOGCM. Thus, the RCM shows a smaller shift in the mean of PDF for maximum temperature than for mean or minimum temperature, the AOGCM shows a comparable shift for all three, and the observations show a greater shift in the PDF for maximum temperature. For the period 2070–2099 relative to 1978–2008, the three average shifts are 4.11 °C, 3.87 °C and 3.44 °C for the RCM and 3.63 °C, 3.74 °C and 3.84 °C for the AOGCM.