Climate change impacts on global agriculture

• Published in: Climatic change Vol. 120; no. 1-2; pp. 357 - 374
• Main Authors: Calzadilla, Alvaro, Rehdanz, Katrin, Betts, Richard, Falloon, Pete, Wiltshire, Andy, Tol, Richard S. J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01-09-2013; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Agriculture; Atmospheric Sciences; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Crops; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Economic models; Economics; Environmental impact; Equilibrium; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Food production; Foods; Freshwater; Freshwater resources; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; Impact analysis; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; International trade; Irrigation; Mathematical models; Meteorology; Precipitation; Productivity; Regional; River flow; Rivers; Soil moisture; Stream flow; Temperature; Irrigate Agriculture; SRES Scenario; Global Agriculture; Climate Change Impact; River Flow; Emission scenario; Century 21st; fertilization; economic impacts; Rainfed agriculture; Carbon dioxide; climate warming; Impact study; Climate prediction; greenhouse gas; agriculture; irrigation; Welfare; global change; Food security; water resource management; climate change
• ISSN: 0165-0009; 1573-1480
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0822-4

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO
2
fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.