Interpreting intraplate tectonics for seismic hazard: a UK historical perspective

• Published in: Journal of seismology Vol. 16; no. 2; pp. 261 - 273
• Main Author: Musson, R. M. W.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01-04-2012; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Earthquakes; Earthquakes, seismology; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Exact sciences and technology; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; History; Hydrogeology; Internal geophysics; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Original Article; Plate tectonics; Seismic activity; Seismic hazard; Seismology; Structural Geology; Tectonics; United Kingdom; Europe; Western Europe; United Kingdom > UK; British Isles; Seismotectonics; Intraplate; Seismic source model; UK; History of seismology; Seismic hazard; Tectonics; models; seismotectonics; seismology; surveys; cycles; intraplate tectonics; earthquakes; seismic sources; seismicity
• ISSN: 1383-4649; 1573-157X
• DOI: 10.1007/s10950-011-9268-1

It is notoriously difficult to construct seismic source models for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in intraplate areas on the basis of geological information, and many practitioners have given up the task in favour of purely seismicity-based models. This risks losing potentially valuable information in regions where the earthquake catalogue is short compared to the seismic cycle. It is interesting to survey how attitudes to this issue have evolved over the past 30 years. This paper takes the UK as an example, and traces the evolution of seismic source models through generations of hazard studies. It is found that in the UK, while the earliest studies did not consider regional tectonics in any way, there has been a gradual evolution towards more tectonically based models. Experience in other countries, of course, may differ.