Pan-African evolution of within- and between-country COVID-19 dynamics

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We created a strategy that helps predict the country-l...

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Published in:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 118; no. 28; pp. 1 - 10
Main Authors:	Ssentongo, Paddy, Fronterre, Claudio, Geronimo, Andrew, Greybush, Steven J., Mbabazi, Pamela K., Muvawala, Joseph, Nahalamba, Sarah B., Omadi, Philip O., Opar, Bernard T., Sinnar, Shamim A., Wang, Yan, Whalen, Andrew J., Held, Leonhard, Jewell, Christopher, Muwanguzi, Abraham J. B., Greatrex, Helen, Norton, Michael M., Diggle, Peter J., Schiff, Steven J.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Washington National Academy of Sciences 13-07-2021
Subjects:	Biological Sciences Containment Coronaviruses COVID-19 Disease transmission Mathematical models Pandemics Social policy Specific humidity Viral diseases Africa
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Summary:	The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We created a strategy that helps predict the country-level case occurrences based on cases within or external to a country throughout the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history. We observed the effect of the Human Development Index, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature, and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission. One-week forecasts of case numbers from the model were driven by the quality of the reported data. Seeking equitable behavioral and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression, should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 Author contributions: P.S., C.F., A.G., L.H., C.J., M.M.N., and S.J.S. designed research; P.S., C.F., A.G., S.J.G., Y.W., A.J.W., H.G., M.M.N., and S.J.S. performed research; P.S., C.F., A.G., S.J.G., Y.W., H.G., M.M.N., and S.J.S. analyzed data; and P.S., C.F., A.G., S.J.G., P.K.M., J.M., S.B.N., P.O.O., B.T.O., S.A.S., A.J.W., L.H., C.J., A.J.B.M., H.G., M.M.N., P.J.D., and S.J.S. wrote the paper. 1P.S., C.F., and A.G. contributed equally to this work. 2L.H., C.J., A.J.B.M., H.G., M.M.N., P.J.D., and S.J.S. contributed equally to this work. Edited by Douglas S. Massey, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, and approved May 25, 2021 (received for review December 28, 2020)
ISSN:	0027-8424 1091-6490
DOI:	10.1073/pnas.2026664118