The near- to mid-term outlook for concentrating solar power: mostly cloudy, chance of sun

• Published in: Energy sources. Part B, Economics, planning and policy Vol. 16; no. 1; pp. 23 - 41
• Main Authors: Lilliestam, Johan, Ollier, Lana, Labordena, Mercè, Pfenninger, Stefan, Thonig, Richard
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Taylor & Francis 02-01-2021
• Subjects: Concentrating solar power; energy policy; industry development; technological learning; value chain analysis
• ISSN: 1556-7249; 1556-7257
• DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2020.1773580

The history of concentrating solar power (CSP) is characterized by a boom-bust pattern caused by policy support changes. Following the 2014-2016 bust phase, the combination of Chinese support and several low-cost projects triggered a new boom phase. We investigate the near- to mid-term cost, industry, market and policy outlook for the global CSP sector and show that CSP costs have decreased strongly and approach cost-competitiveness with new conventional generation. Industry has been strengthened through the entry of numerous new companies. However, the project pipeline is thin: no project broke ground in 2019 and only four projects are under construction in 2020. The only remaining large support scheme, in China, has been canceled. Without additional support soon creating a new market, the value chain may collapse and recent cost and technological advances may be undone. If policy support is renewed, however, the global CSP sector is prepared for a bright future.