Predicting species and community responses to global change using structured expert judgement: An Australian mountain ecosystems case study

• Published in: Global change biology Vol. 27; no. 18; pp. 4420 - 4434
• Main Authors: Camac, James S., Umbers, Kate D. L., Morgan, John W., Geange, Sonya R., Hanea, Anca, Slatyer, Rachel A., McDougall, Keith L., Venn, Susanna E., Vesk, Peter A., Hoffmann, Ary A., Nicotra, Adrienne B.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01-09-2021; John Wiley and Sons Inc
• Subjects: Abundance; adaptive capacity; alpine; Animal species; Biodiversity; biodiversity conservation; Climate; Climate change; Conservation; Data; Decisions; Ecosystem management; Elevation; Environmental policy; expert elicitation; exposure risk; Mountain ecosystems; Mountains; Population decline; Primary; Primary s; Species; Vegetation; Wildfires; Woodlands
• ISSN: 1354-1013; 1365-2486
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15750

Conservation managers are under increasing pressure to make decisions about the allocation of finite resources to protect biodiversity under a changing climate. However, the impacts of climate and global change drivers on species are outpacing our capacity to collect the empirical data necessary to inform these decisions. This is particularly the case in the Australian Alps which have already undergone recent changes in climate and experienced more frequent large‐scale bushfires. In lieu of empirical data, we use a structured expert elicitation method (the IDEA protocol) to estimate the change in abundance and distribution of nine vegetation groups and 89 Australian alpine and subalpine species by the year 2050. Experts predicted that most alpine vegetation communities would decline in extent by 2050; only woodlands and heathlands are predicted to increase in extent. Predicted species‐level responses for alpine plants and animals were highly variable and uncertain. In general, alpine plants spanned the range of possible responses, with some expected to increase, decrease or not change in cover. By contrast, almost all animal species are predicted to decline or not change in abundance or elevation range; more species with water‐centric life‐cycles are expected to decline in abundance than other species. While long‐term ecological data will always be the gold standard for informing the future of biodiversity, the method and outcomes outlined here provide a pragmatic and coherent basis upon which to start informing conservation policy and management in the face of rapid change and a paucity of data.
Experts predicted that most Australian alpine plant communities would decline in extent by 2050; only woodlands and heathlands are predicted to increase. Alpine plants spanned the range of possible responses, with some expected to increase, decrease or not change in cover. By contrast, animal species are predicted to decline or not change in abundance or elevation range. While long‐term ecological data will always be the gold‐standard for informing the future of biodiversity, structured expert elicitation provides a pragmatic and coherent basis upon which to inform conservation policy and management in the face of rapid change and a paucity of data.