Conflict Analysis in the Politico-Military Environment of a New World Order

• Published in: The Journal of the Operational Research Society Vol. 45; no. 2; pp. 133 - 142
• Main Author: Gass, N.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basingstoke Taylor & Francis 01-02-1994; Macmillan Press; Palgrave; Pergamon Press; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Algorithms; Applied sciences; Armed conflict; Case-Oriented Papers; Computational Analysis; Conflict Analysis; Conflicts; Countries; Criteria; Decision Analysis; Decision making models; Decision theory. Utility theory; Environmental policy; Exact sciences and technology; Geopolitics; Manycountries; Methodology; Military; National security; Operational research and scientific management; Operational research. Management science; Operations research; Political conflict; Political risk; Ratings & rankings; Statistical analysis; Statistics; Studies; War; War conflict; Eastern Europe; Methodology; Multicriteria analysis; Political aspect; Military environment; Conflict theory; Decision analysis; Statistics; Crisis
• ISSN: 0160-5682; 1476-9360
• DOI: 10.1057/jors.1994.19

A methodology is developed to analyse present and future crisis and conflict potentials of small or large geopolitical regions. A set of criteria is used to describe the present economic, social, political and military conditions of a country and the future criteria trends. A multi-criteria decision analysis model is invoked to compute the crisis and conflict potentials under simultaneous consideration of all other countries in that region. The methodology is demonstrated in the crisis and conflict potentials analysis of the former Soviet republics including bordering countries.