Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting：Progress and perspectives

• Published in: Journal of geographical sciences Vol. 26; no. 7; pp. 904 - 920
• Main Authors: Tang, Qiuhong, Zhang, Xuejun, Duan, Qingyun, Huang, Shifeng, Yuan, Xing, Cui, Huijuan, Li, Zhe, Liu, Xingcai
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Heidelberg Science Press 01-07-2016; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Drought; Earth and Environmental Science; Environmental monitoring; Forecasting; Geographical Information Systems/Cartography; Geography; Hydrology; Information technology; Mathematical models; Monitoring systems; Nature Conservation; Physical Geography; Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry; Risk assessment; River basins; Water management; 信息技术; 季节性气候; 季节预报; 展望; 气象信息; 水文监测系统; 预测; 风险评估; China, People's Rep; hydrological forecasting; remote sensing; hydrological monitoring; modeling; climate model; uncertainty
• ISSN: 1009-637X; 1861-9568
• DOI: 10.1007/s11442-016-1306-z

Hydrological monitoring and seasonal forecasting is an active research field because of its potential applications in hydrological risk assessment, preparedness and mitigation. In recent decades, developments in ground and satellite measurements have made the hydrometeorological information readily available, and advances in information technology have facilitated the data analysis in a real-time manner. New progress in climate research and modeling has enabled the prediction of seasonal climate with reasonable accuracy and increased resolution. These emerging techniques and advances have enabled more timely acquisition of accurate hydrological fluxes and status, and earlier warning of extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. This paper gives current state-of-the-art understanding of the uncertainties in hydrological monitoring and forecasting, reviews the efforts and progress in operational hydrological monitoring system assisted by observations from various sources and experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting, and briefly introduces the current monitoring and forecasting practices in China. The grand challenges and perspectives for the near future are also discussed, including acquiring and extracting reliable information for monitoring and forecasting, predicting realistic hydrological fluxes and states in the river basin being significantly altered by human activity, and filling the gap between numerical models and the end user. We highlight the importance of understanding the needs of the operational water management and the priority to transfer research knowledge to decision-makers.