An aftermath analysis of the 2014 coal mine accident in Soma, Turkey: Use of risk performance indicators based on historical experience

• Published in: Accident analysis and prevention Vol. 87; pp. 134 - 140
• Main Authors: Spada, Matteo, Burgherr, Peter
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 01-02-2016
• Subjects: Accident analysis; Accidents; Accidents, Occupational - statistics & numerical data; Accidents, Occupational - trends; Bayes Theorem; Bayesian analysis; Causality; Coal mine accident; Coal mines; Coal Mining - statistics & numerical data; Coal Mining - trends; Cross-Cultural Comparison; Fatalities; Fires - statistics & numerical data; Forensic engineering; Historic; Humans; Models, Statistical; Occupational Health - statistics & numerical data; Occupational Health - trends; Occupational Injuries - mortality; Risk assessment; Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data; Risk Assessment - trends; Turkey; United States; United States; Turkey; MED, Turkey; USA; Bayesian analysis; Risk assessment; Coal mine accident
• ISSN: 0001-4575; 1879-2057
• DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2015.11.020

•Contrary to OECD, coal accidents and fatalities in Turkey show an increasing trend.•The Soma coal mine accident cannot be considered an extremely rare event for Turkey.•The Turkish coal sector is more accident-prone than the rest of OECD.•Improved safety and stricter regulation are needed in the Turkish coal mining sector.
On the 13th of May 2014 a fire related incident in the Soma coal mine in Turkey caused 301 fatalities and more than 80 injuries. This has been the largest coal mine accident in Turkey, and in the OECD country group, so far. This study investigated if such a disastrous event should be expected, in a statistical sense, based on historical observations. For this purpose, PSI's ENSAD database is used to extract accident data for the period 1970–2014. Four different cases are analyzed, i.e., OECD, OECD w/o Turkey, Turkey and USA. Analysis of temporal trends for annual numbers of accidents and fatalities indicated a non-significant decreasing tendency for OECD and OECD w/o Turkey and a significant one for USA, whereas for Turkey both measures showed an increase over time. The expectation analysis revealed clearly that an event with the consequences of the Soma accident is rather unlikely for OECD, OECD w/o Turkey and USA. In contrast, such a severe accident has a substantially higher expectation for Turkey, i.e. it cannot be considered an extremely rare event, based on historical experience. This indicates a need for improved safety measures and stricter regulations in the Turkish coal mining sector in order to get closer to the rest of OECD.