Modelling and projecting digital trends in European regions: an econometric framework

• Published in: Regional studies Vol. 55; no. 10-11; pp. 1696 - 1710
• Main Authors: Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús, Lutz, Sebastian Uljas
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge Taylor & Francis Ltd 02-11-2021
• Subjects: Broadband; Broadband communication systems; Convergence; Demographic variables; Electronic commerce; Electronic government; Internet access; Modelling; Public services; Regions; Trade; Trends; Uncertainty; Variables
• ISSN: 0034-3404; 1360-0591
• DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2021.1976746

Our modelling strategy assesses model uncertainty explicitly and aims to identify the main drivers of differences in digital variables at the household and individual levels in 99 European NUTS-2 regions. Several economic and demographic covariates are found to be robust predictors of these variables. Our benchmark projection results indicate that historical convergence trends in variables related to the access to digital technologies (broadband and internet use) are expected to continue, but that in the absence of particular policy impulses, the digital divide existing in Europe for international e-commerce and e-government interactions is not expected to disappear in the coming years.