Supply and Demand Model for a Chili Enterprise System Using a Simultaneous Equations System

• Published in: Economies Vol. 10; no. 12; p. 312
• Main Authors: Rachmaniah, Meuthia, Suroso, Arif Imam, Syukur, Muhamad, Hermadi, Irman
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01-12-2022
• Subjects: business analytics; chili agro-system; Consumer Price Index; Data mining; data preprocessing; decision support system; enterprise system; Forecasts and trends; Intelligence; Peppers; Simulation methods; Small & medium sized enterprises-SME; Supply & demand; Supply and demand; Supply chains; Time series; Variables; Wholesalers; Indonesia
• ISSN: 2227-7099; 2227-7099
• DOI: 10.3390/economies10120312

The supply and demand of various fresh chili types correspond to one another simultaneously because they can be complementary or substitute products. This study aimed to simultaneously examine the supply and demand model of red chili and cayenne peppers to support innovative chili enterprise system development. The methodology is the simultaneous equation system panel data using the years 2010–2020 time-series and provincial cross-sectional data combined with data mining techniques. The two-stage least square method was used for the estimation and simulation of the models. The results of the models comprise three identities and ten structural equations. The resulting models are all statistically fit with some drawbacks owing to the micro-level data availabilities. The simulations on the labor wages, prices, demand, and production for red chili and cayenne peppers affected the other variables within the model. In conclusion, the chili supply and demand models could support the development of the innovative chili enterprise system; however, this requires proactive collaboration and participation from all the relevant institutions and actors. Moreover, this research model is potentially applicable to other horticultural commodities.