Predicting Covid-19 infection and death rates among E.U. minority populations in the absence of racially disaggregated data through the use of US data comparisons

• Published in: European journal of public health Vol. 34; no. 1; pp. 176 - 180
• Main Authors: Cecchi Dimeglio, Paola, Fullilove, Robert E, Cecchi, Catherine, Cabon, Yann, Rosenberg, Jessica
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Oxford University Press 05-02-2024; Oxford Publishing Limited (England)
• Subjects: Black or African American; COVID-19; Data; Data collection; Death; Death & dying; Ethnicity; Health; Health promotion; Health Status Disparities; Hispanic or Latino; Humans; Infections; Intervention; Minority & ethnic groups; Minority Groups; Mortality; Mortality rates; Populations; Prediction models; United States - epidemiology; United States; United States > US
• ISSN: 1101-1262; 1464-360X
• DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckad164

Abstract
Background
The E.U.’s lack of racially disaggregated data impedes the formulation of effective interventions, and crises such as Covid-19 may continue to impact minorities more severely. Our predictive model offers insight into the disparate ways in which Covid-19 has likely impacted E.U. minorities and allows for the inference of differences in Covid-19 infection and death rates between E.U. minority and non-minority populations.
Methods
Data covering Covid-19, social determinants of health and minority status were included from 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021. A systematic comparison of US and E.U. states enabled the projection of Covid-19 infection and death rates for minorities and non-minorities in E.U. states.
Results
The model predicted Covid-19 infection rates with 95–100% accuracy for 23 out of 28 E.U. states. Projections for Covid-19 infection and mortality rates among E.U. minority groups illustrate parallel trends to US rates.
Conclusions
Disparities in Covid-19 infection and death rates by minority status likely exist in patterns similar to those observed in US data. Policy Implications: Collecting data by race/ethnicity in the E.U. would help document health disparities and craft more targeted health interventions and mitigation strategies.