An Integrated Approach to Long-Term Fuel Supply Planning in Combined Heat and Power Systems

• Published in: Energies (Basel) Vol. 15; no. 22; p. 8339
• Main Authors: Benalcazar, Pablo, Kamiński, Jacek, Stós, Karol
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01-11-2022
• Subjects: Coal-fired power plants; Cogeneration; Cogeneration power plants; combined heat and power; Commercial real estate; Contract negotiations; Customers; district heating systems; Electric power generation; Electric power systems; Electricity; Energy demand; Energy industry; Force and energy; fuel supply planning; heat market; Information management; Investment analysis; Long-term planning; Mathematical models; Modernization; optimization; Power plants; Production costs; strategic heat planning; Strategic management; Strategic planning; Thermal energy; Urban areas; Indonesia
• ISSN: 1996-1073; 1996-1073
• DOI: 10.3390/en15228339

This paper examines the issue of strategic planning of fuel supplies in combined heat and power systems. This is a major challenge in energy modeling because heating-degree day calculation methods only address short-term horizons and are not suitable for the long-term planning of fuel supplies. In this work, a comprehensive method is proposed for strategic fuel supply planning of independent heat producers. The method considers changes in the market dynamics of residential and commercial properties, the annual rate of customer acquisition by the network operator, customer disconnections, as well as the thermal modernization of buildings for estimating the long-term thermal energy demand of an urban area. Moreover, the method develops a mathematical model to minimize production costs, taking into account the technical constraints of the system. The proposed strategic planning tool, in addition to information on the quantities of fuel consumed for heat and electricity production, also provides valuable management information on the operational costs of the CHP system and its environmental impact. The application of the method is illustrated with the analysis of a large-scale combined heat and power plant supplying heat and electricity to a city with over 500,000 inhabitants. The results indicate that depending on the changes in the primary and secondary heat markets, the demand for energy carriers may range from 107.37 TWh to 119.87 TWh.