A spatially-modelled snapshot of future marine macroalgal assemblages in southern Europe: Towards a broader Mediterranean region?

• Published in: Marine environmental research Vol. 176; p. 105592
• Main Authors: Muguerza, N., Arriaga, O., Díez, I., Becerro, M.A., Quintano, E., Gorostiaga, J.M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 01-04-2022; Elsevier BV
• Subjects: Biodiversity; Climate Change; Climate effects; Coastal ecosystems; Distribution; Ecological quality assessment; Ecological resilience; Ecosystem; Ecosystem restoration; Environmental conditions; Environmental policy; Geographical distribution; Human impacts; Long-term changes; Macroalgal assemblages; Mediterranean Region; Nutrient availability; Seaweeds; Temperature; Water temperature; Mediterranean Region; Iberian Peninsula; Southern Europe; Human impacts; Macroalgal assemblages; Ecological resilience; Ecosystem restoration; Ecological quality assessment; Long-term changes
• ISSN: 0141-1136; 1879-0291
• DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105592

The effect of climate change on species distribution has been the focus of much recent research, but the community-level approach remains poorly studied. Our investigation applies a present assemblage-environment relationship model for the first time to the predict changes in subtidal macroalgal assemblages in the northern Iberian Peninsula under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios by 2100. Water temperature is the most relevant factor in shaping assemblage distribution, whilst nutrient availability plays a secondary role. The results partially support our hypothesis that there may well be a potential meridionalisation of northern Iberian assemblages in the future. Under the most pessimistic scenario, the model projects that the north-western assemblages will remain distinct from the rest, whereas the central and eastern assemblages of the north coast of the Iberian Peninsula will come to resemble those of the Mediterranean region more closely than those of the northwest coast. This research may help predict how the biodiversity of the coastal ecosystem will respond to new environmental conditions. This is essential information for developing proper management and conservation policies.
•Macroalgal assemblage-environment relationship model is developed.•Water temperature is the most relevant factor in shaping assemblage distribution.•Nutrient availability plays a secondary role in shaping assemblage distribution.•A potential meridionalisation of macroalgal assemblages on N Iberian rocky shores.