A Spatiotemporal Deep Learning Approach for Urban Pluvial Flood Forecasting with Multi-Source Data

• Published in: Water (Basel) Vol. 15; no. 9; p. 1760
• Main Authors: Burrichter, Benjamin, Hofmann, Julian, Koltermann da Silva, Juliana, Niemann, Andre, Quirmbach, Markus
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01-05-2023
• Subjects: Analysis; Climate change; Computer architecture; Deep learning; Early warning systems; Flood forecasting; Flood predictions; Flooding; Floods; Germany; Investigations; Machine learning; Neural networks; Overflow; Precipitation; Predictions; Rain; real-time flood forecasting; Root-mean-square errors; Social networks; Spatial data; spatiotemporal modeling; Time series; Two dimensional models; urban pluvial flooding; Germany
• ISSN: 2073-4441; 2073-4441
• DOI: 10.3390/w15091760

This study presents a deep-learning-based forecast model for spatial and temporal prediction of pluvial flooding. The developed model can produce the flooding situation for the upcoming time steps as a sequence of flooding maps. Thus, a dynamic overview of the forthcoming flooding situation is generated to support the decision of crisis management actors. The influence of different input data, data formats, and model setups on the prediction results was investigated. Data from multiple sources were considered as follows: precipitation information, spatial information, and an overflow forecast. In addition, models with different layers and network architectures such as convolutional layers, graph convolutional layers, or generative adversarial networks (GANs) were considered and evaluated. The data required to train and test the models were generated using a coupled hydrodynamic 1D/2D model. The model setup with the inclusion of all available input variables and an architecture with graph convolutional layers presented, in general, the best results in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) and critical success index (CSI). The prediction results of the final model showed a high agreement with the simulation results of the hydrodynamic model, with drastic reductions in computation time, making this model suitable for integration into an early warning system for pluvial flooding.