Future climatic changes, extreme events, related uncertainties, and policy recommendations in the Hindu Kush sub-regions of Pakistan

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology Vol. 143; no. 1-2; pp. 193 - 209
• Main Authors: Ali, Shaukat, Saeed, Alia, Kiani, Rida Sehar, Muhammad, Sher, Khan, Firdos, Babar, Romaisa, Khan, Asif, Iqbal, Muhammad Shahid, Goheer, Muhammad Arif, Naseem, Wajid, Fahad, Shah
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Vienna Springer Vienna 2021; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Change detection; Climate change; Climate science; Climatic extremes; Climatic indexes; Climatology; Data; Distribution functions; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Extreme cold; Extreme weather; Global temperature changes; Maximum temperatures; Original Paper; Policies; Precipitation; Regional climates; Regions; Temperature; Temperature extremes; Uncertainty; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Hindu Kush; Pakistan; Bias correction; Climatic changes; Future projections; Global climate models; Extreme events
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03399-7

This study explores the relative changes and future projections of temperature and precipitation for baseline (1976–2005) and future (2006–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) periods for the Bajaur, Mohmand, and Khyber districts of Pakistan situated in the Hindu Kush region. Data from 14 GCMs (out of which five GCMs were selected based on evaluation and validation) and three RCMs were downscaled and bias corrected using the quantile delta mapping (QDM) method for GCMs and the best easy systemic (BES) method for RCMs. The future extremes were projected by using the standard indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Uncertainty in the data was analysed by a probabilistic distribution function (PDF), boxplots, and standard deviation. For RCP4.5, the GCM and RCM projections show an increase in the average maximum temperature of 0.98 °C for 2006–2040, 1.89 °C and 2.04 °C for 2041–2070, and 2.25 °C and 2.56 °C for 2071–2100, respectively, while the increase is almost double for RCP8.5 during the last period (2071–2099) over the whole study area. The percent increase in precipitation over the whole study area from GCMs and RCMs for RCP4.5 is 10.00–17.00% and 21.14–34.47%, while for RCP8.5, it is 11.73–22.12% and 16.17–31.50%, respectively. In RCM projections for RCP4.5, the Khyber district will experience drier conditions in mid-century, while for GCMs (RCP4.5), the same conditions are projected through the end of the century. In terms of extreme events, warm temperature extremes and extreme precipitation events show an increasing trend accompanied by a decrease in cold extremes over all regions. Hence, it is concluded that warm and wet conditions are projected to prevail in all regions. However, GCM data depict less uncertainty compared with RCM data, and while models show less error for the baseline period, the error increases slightly for the future periods. Thus, this study provides research findings along with policy recommendations essential to combat the potential impacts of projected changes in the regional climate.