Human mortality at very advanced age might be constant

• Published in: Mechanisms of ageing and development Vol. 98; no. 2; pp. 167 - 176
• Main Authors: Klemera, Petr, Doubal, Stanislav
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Shannon Elsevier Ireland Ltd 01-11-1997; Elsevier Science
• Subjects: Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Aging; Aging - physiology; Biological and medical sciences; Data Interpretation, Statistical; Development. Metamorphosis. Moult. Ageing; Female; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Humans; Linear Models; Logistic Models; Longevity; Male; Mortality; Mortality rate; Vertebrates: anatomy and physiology, studies on body, several organs or systems; Very advanced age; Aging; Very advanced age; Longevity; Mortality rate; Human; Elderly; Mortality; Age
• ISSN: 0047-6374; 1872-6216
• DOI: 10.1016/S0047-6374(97)00081-X

An attempt was made to identify the course of the mortality rate at the upper tail of human age. The only known data suitable for this purpose were published by Riggs and Millecchia (J.E. Riggs, R.J. Millecchia, Mech. Ageing Dev. 62 (1992) 191–199) and our analysis follows up their results. By means of mathematical elaboration it was proved that these data imply a constant mortality rate (approx. 25% per year) at ages above 113 years for men and above 116 years for women. Indirect arguments supporting the validity of the source data are discussed. Nevertheless, even if the source data are mistaken, we proved they cannot be the product of purely random errors and our results may contribute to the elucidation of the origin of those systematic errors.