Acceptability of energy sources using an integration of the Delphi method and the analytic hierarchy process

• Published in: Quality & quantity Vol. 48; no. 6; pp. 2973 - 2991
• Main Authors: Di Zio, Simone, Maretti, Mara
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01-11-2014; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Acceptance; Alternative energy sources; Community; Convergence; Decision making; Delphi method; Dynamics; Energy resources; Energy sources; Geopolitics; Group dynamics; Hierarchies; Hierarchy; Innovations; Methodology of the Social Sciences; Methods; Multiple criteria decision making; Political systems; Public opinion; Renewable resources; Social Sciences; Statistical analysis; AHP; Group decision-making; Public opinions; Delphi; Acceptability; Energy shift
• ISSN: 0033-5177; 1573-7845
• DOI: 10.1007/s11135-013-9935-0

The research presented in this paper is structured on the basis of the extensive literature on the world energy shift and, in particular, the dynamics of the political, social, market, and community acceptability of different energy sources. This study attempts to determine which sources of energy are most accepted or preferred by political systems, public opinion, and the market and the weights that these dynamics of acceptability have on the global energy shift. In this theoretical framework, we present an application and propose a methodology resulting from the integration of two methods: the Delphi method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). While Delphi seeks a convergence of opinions among a group of experts, the AHP helps solve complex decision problems using a hierarchical structure. To integrate the Delphi and AHP methods, we propose an innovation in the way the feedbacks are circulated among the participants. The experts’ judgements are given in a box-plot using a slider, which simplifies the procedure because the respondents have all the most important information on the distribution of responses from the previous round. At the same time, our method eliminates the problem of the choice of one of the diverse methods of aggregation, which are necessary when the AHP is applied in a group setting. The application of this method to energy issues and the dynamics of the acceptability of the different sources in particular revealed the feasibility and advantages of the instrument and produced interesting results.