A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

• Published in: Hydrological sciences journal Vol. 65; no. 3; pp. 387 - 400
• Main Authors: Stojković, Milan, Plavšić, Jasna, Prohaska, Stevan, Pavlović, Dragutin, Despotović, Jovan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Abingdon Taylor & Francis 17-02-2020; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Adaptation; Climate change; Climate models; Environmental impact; Hydrologic models; Hydrology; Lim River basin; Periodicity; Precipitation; Precipitation-temperature relationships; River basins; Rivers; Seasonal variations; Seasonality; southeast Europe; Stochasticity; Temperature; Time series; transfer function models; Transfer functions; two-stage deterministic-stochastic time series model; Water availability; Water resources; South East Europe; Europe
• ISSN: 0262-6667; 2150-3435
• DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1699241

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950-2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013-2070.