Some observations on forecasting and policy

Some observations on forecasting and policy

This paper offers some thoughts on the use of macroeconomic and financial forecasts in monetary and fiscal policy. It stresses the role of nowcasting in constructing good forecasts: most of the value added in macreoeconomic forecasts comes from getting a good approximation to the jumping-off point....

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of forecasting Vol. 35; no. 3; pp. 1186 - 1192
Main Author: Wright, Jonathan H.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier B.V 01-07-2019
Subjects:
Fiscal policy
Forecasts
Interest rates
Monetary policy
Nowcasts
Surveys
Surveys
Monetary policy
Forecasts
Fiscal policy
Nowcasts
Interest rates
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:This paper offers some thoughts on the use of macroeconomic and financial forecasts in monetary and fiscal policy. It stresses the role of nowcasting in constructing good forecasts: most of the value added in macreoeconomic forecasts comes from getting a good approximation to the jumping-off point. Some specific applications are discussed: long-range debt/GDP projections and forecasting recessions using asset prices. I also discuss the construction and use of density forecasts.
ISSN:0169-2070
1872-8200
DOI:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.003