Reexamining Rates of Decline in Lung Cancer Risk after Smoking Cessation. A Meta-analysis

• Published in: Annals of the American Thoracic Society Vol. 17; no. 9; pp. 1126 - 1132
• Main Authors: Reitsma, Marissa, Kendrick, Parkes, Anderson, Jason, Arian, Nicholas, Feldman, Rachel, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Gupta, Vin
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York American Thoracic Society 01-09-2020
• Subjects: Lung cancer; Medical screening; Meta-analysis; Risk factors; Smoking; Smoking cessation
• ISSN: 2329-6933; 2325-6621
• DOI: 10.1513/AnnalsATS.201909-659OC

Reitsma et al characterize the percentage of the reducible relative risk (RR) remaining for lung cancer as a function of years since quitting (YSQ). Prior studies have questioned whether prevailing eligibility criteria for lung cancer screening are sufficiently inclusive of former smokers who remain at elevated risk of disease outside current screening windows. MEDLINE and PubMed were searched from January 2011 to May 2018; key search terms included smoking and cancer. Current smoker RRs were extracted to represent former smokers at 0 YSQ; data were transformed assuming a lognormal distribution. At the critical screening threshold of 15 YSQ, the percentage of excess risk for lung cancer remains high and only marginally declines at time points afterward, excluding millions of former smokers who remain at elevated risk of malignancy.