Mortality risk assessment through stationary space–time covariance functions

• Published in: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment Vol. 24; no. 4; pp. 519 - 526
• Main Authors: Martínez-Ruiz, F., Mateu, J., Montes, F., Porcu, E.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer-Verlag 01-05-2010; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Aquatic Pollution; Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Computational Intelligence; Computer Science; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Environment; Health risk assessment; Health risks; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Mortality; Mortality risk; Original Paper; Physics; Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes; Risk assessment; Statistics for Engineering; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Spain; Dynamic life tables; Covariance functions; Space–time processes
• ISSN: 1436-3240; 1436-3259
• DOI: 10.1007/s00477-009-0342-y

Dynamic life tables arise as an alternative to the standard (static) life tables with the aim of incorporating the evolution of mortality over time. These tables can be considered as a two-way table on a grid equally spaced in either the vertical (age) or horizontal (year) directions, and the data can be decomposed into a deterministic large-scale variation (trend) plus a stochastic small-scale variation (residuals). In this context, space–time geostatistical methods can be used for fitting and predicting the dynamic mortality. We use four different space–time covariance functions for fitting and predicting mortality in Spain during the period 1980–2005. In particular, we aim at showing the behavior of separable versus nonseparable fitted structures on one hand, and the behavior of simple structures given by combinations of products and sums versus more complicated negative structures on the other hand.