Analysis of experimental series of plutonium nitrate in aqueous solution and their correlation coefficients

• Published in: Annals of nuclear energy Vol. 96; pp. 354 - 362
• Main Authors: Kilger, Robert, Sommer, Fabian, Stuke, Maik
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01-10-2016
• Subjects: Aqueous solutions; Correlation coefficients; Correlations; Critical experiments; Mathematical models; Modelling; Nitrates; Plutonium; Sensitivity; Uncertainty; Critical experiments; Sensitivity; Plutonium; Correlations
• ISSN: 0306-4549; 1873-2100
• DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2016.06.017

•Detailed analysis of 43 critical plutonium nitrate in aqueous solution contained in metal spheres from 6 experimental series.•Derived correlation coefficients are for many cases statistically not significant.•Possible impacts on validation procedures are discussed.•Influence of cadmium on our keff calculations of two experiments discussed.
In this work we performed a detailed analysis on the calculation of 43 critical experiments from 6 experimental series all describing plutonium nitrate in aqueous solution contained in metal spheres. The underlying experimental data is taken from the handbook of the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) working group. We present our modeling assumptions which were derived from the interpretation of the experimental data and discuss the resulting uncertainty and correlation analysis. Although the experiments share some components, the derived correlation coefficients are for many cases statistically not significant. Comparing our findings for the correlation coefficients with available data from the DICE Database we find an agreement for the correlation coefficients due to nuclear data. We also compare our results for the correlation coefficients due to experimental uncertainty. Our findings indicate that for the reliable determination of correlation coefficients a detailed study of the underlying experimental data, the modeling approach and assumptions, and the resulting sensitivity analysis seems to be inevitable.