Global biogeography of microbes driving ocean ecological status under climate change

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 15; no. 1; pp. 4657 - 12
• Main Authors: Zhang, Zhenyan, Zhang, Qi, Chen, Bingfeng, Yu, Yitian, Wang, Tingzhang, Xu, Nuohan, Fan, Xiaoji, Penuelas, Josep, Fu, Zhengwei, Deng, Ye, Zhu, Yong-Guan, Qian, Haifeng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 31-05-2024; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 119/118; 45/47; 631/326/171/1878; 631/326/2565/855; 631/326/47/4112; 704/106/694/2786; 704/829/826; Anthropogenic factors; Biodiversity; Biogeochemistry; Biogeography; Carbon Cycle; Carbon fixation; Climate Change; Climate change mitigation; Ecosystem; Emissions; Environmental conditions; Greenhouse gases; Humanities and Social Sciences; Machine learning; Microbial activity; Microbiomes; Microbiota; Microorganisms; multidisciplinary; Nutrient status; Oceans and Seas; Prediction models; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Seawater - microbiology
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49124-0

Microbial communities play a crucial role in ocean ecology and global biogeochemical processes. However, understanding the intricate interactions among diversity, taxonomical composition, functional traits, and how these factors respond to climate change remains a significant challenge. Here, we propose seven distinct ecological statuses by systematically considering the diversity, structure, and biogeochemical potential of the ocean microbiome to delineate their biogeography. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter the ecological status of the surface ocean by influencing environmental conditions, particularly nutrient and oxygen contents. Our predictive model, which utilizes machine learning, indicates that the ecological status of approximately 32.44% of the surface ocean may undergo changes from the present to the end of this century, assuming no policy interventions. These changes mainly include poleward shifts in the main taxa, increases in photosynthetic carbon fixation and decreases in nutrient metabolism. However, this proportion can decrease significantly with effective control of greenhouse gas emissions. Our study underscores the urgent necessity for implementing policies to mitigate climate change, particularly from an ecological perspective.
Zhang et al. propose the ecological status of the ocean by considering microbial diversity, structure, and biogeochemical potential. Ecological status of 32.44% surface ocean will change due to climate change in 2100, assuming no policy intervention.