Ice Forecasting in the Next-Generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS)

• Published in: Journal of marine science and engineering Vol. 6; no. 4; p. 123
• Main Authors: Anderson, Eric, Fujisaki-Manome, Ayumi, Kessler, James, Lang, Gregory, Chu, Philip, Kelley, John, Chen, Yi, Wang, Jia
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 21-10-2018
• Subjects: Algorithms; CICE; Economic forecasting; Evacuations & rescues; FVCOM; Great Lakes; Heat; hydrodynamic modeling; Ice; Ice conditions; Ice cover; Ice forecasting; ice modeling; Lake ice; Lakes; Mathematical models; Modelling; operational forecast; Radiation; Regional development; Satellites; Shipping industry; Shorelines; Simulation; Spatial distribution; Surface water; Water circulation; Water currents; Water temperature; Lake Erie; Lake Michigan; United States > US; Michigan
• ISSN: 2077-1312; 2077-1312
• DOI: 10.3390/jmse6040123

Ice Cover in the Great Lakes has significant impacts on regional weather, economy, lake ecology, and human safety. However, forecast guidance for the lakes is largely focused on the ice-free season and associated state variables (currents, water temperatures, etc.) A coupled lake-ice model is proposed with potential to provide valuable information to stakeholders and society at large about the current and near-future state of Great Lakes Ice. The model is run for three of the five Great Lakes for prior years and the modeled ice cover is compared to observations via several skill metrics. Model hindcasts of ice conditions reveal reasonable simulation of year-to-year variability of ice extent, ice season duration, and spatial distribution, though some years appear to be prone to higher error. This modeling framework will serve as the basis for NOAA’s next-generation Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS); a set of 3-D lake circulation forecast modeling systems which provides forecast guidance out to 120 h.