Modeling streamflow response under changing environment using a modified SWAT model with enhanced representation of CO2 effects

• Published in: Journal of hydrology. Regional studies Vol. 50; p. 101547
• Main Authors: Li, Baogui, Tan, Lili, Zhang, Xueliang, Qi, Junyu, Marek, Gary W., Li, Yingxuan, Dong, Xiaojie, Zhao, Wenjie, Chen, Ting, Feng, Puyu, Liu, De Li, Srinivasan, Raghavan, Chen, Yong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01-12-2023; Elsevier
• Subjects: CMIP6; Environmental change; Haihe River Basin; Spatio-temporal variations; SSPs; Streamflow; CMIP6; Environmental change; Haihe River Basin; SSPs; Streamflow; Spatio-temporal variations
• ISSN: 2214-5818; 2214-5818
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101547

Haihe River Basin (HRB) in North China Plain.
Changes in streamflow due to climate change and human activities are highly uncertain. An improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model equipped with a dynamic CO2 input method was used to quantify the environmental change impacts on streamflow in the HRB. Streamflow changes were analyzed based on 22 bias-corrected CMIP6 GCMs under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 during two 30-year periods of the middle (2041–2070) and end (2071–2100) of the 21st century relative to the historical period (1971–2000).
Long-term simulations of annual streamflow in the HRB demonstrated substantial discrepancies between the dynamic and constant CO2 input methods under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, which highlighted the importance of using the dynamic CO2 input method for streamflow simulations. Spatio-temporal analysis using the improved SWAT model revealed that streamflow generally increased under four emission scenarios compared to the historical period. In the HRB, annual streamflow in the downstream plains was higher than in the upstream mountains, and this was more evident under the highest emission scenario of SSP5-8.5. Monthly streamflow showed considerable intra-annual variability that was generally greater from July to November. The strongest increment in streamflow was projected in the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, indicating that flood risk would possibly increase in the late 21st century.
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•Improved SWAT model with a dynamic CO2 input method was used to simulate streamflow.•22 CMIP6 GCMs with four SSP emission scenarios from 2041 to 2100 were utilized.•Future PCP, Tmax, and Tmin increased significantly across regions and scenarios.•Future streamflow was increased and more evident at the end of the 21st century.•Streamflow in the downstream plains increased higher than in the upstream mountains.