Variation of Fault Creep Along the Overdue Istanbul‐Marmara Seismic Gap in NW Türkiye

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 50; no. 6
• Main Authors: Becker, D., Martínez‐Garzón, P., Wollin, C., Kılıç, T., Bohnhoff, M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 28-03-2023; Wiley
• Subjects: Brittleness; Deformation; Earthquakes; fault creep; Fault lines; Fault zones; Geological faults; Hazard assessment; Marmara Sea; Offshore; Plate tectonics; Plates (tectonics); Repeaters; repeating earthquakes; Rupture; Segments; Seismic activity; seismic cyle; Seismic energy; seismic gap; Seismic hazard; Seismicity; Solifluction; Strain energy; Tapering; Variability; Istanbul Turkey; Turkey
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2022GL101471

Strain energy from tectonic loading can be partly released through aseismic creep. Earthquake repeaters, repeatedly activated brittle fault patches surrounded by creep, indicate steady‐state creep that affects the amount of seismic energy available for the next large earthquake along a plate contact. The offshore Main Marmara Fault (MMF) of the North Anatolian Fault Zone represents a seismic gap capable of generating a M > 7 earthquake in direct vicinity to the mega‐city Istanbul. Based on a newly compiled seismicity catalog, we identify repeating earthquakes to resolve the spatial creep variability along the MMF during a 15‐year period. We observe a maximum of seismic repeaters indicating creep along the central and western MMF segments tapering off toward the locked onshore Ganos fault in the west, and the locked offshore Princes Islands segment immediately south of Istanbul in the east. This indicates a high degree of spatial creep variability along the Istanbul‐Marmara seismic gap.
Plain Language Summary
The relative motion of tectonic plates deforms these plates along their contact zone until the plate contact ruptures in an earthquake. However, some of this deformation can be released without earthquakes by so‐called aseismic creep in which the plates creep past each other. Within this creep zone, sometimes some brittle patches exist that interlock during the plate creep and rupture repeatedly in smaller earthquakes that are very similar. They are called earthquake repeaters. In the Sea of Marmara south of Istanbul lies the contact between the Eurasian and the Anatolian plates, the so‐called Main Marmara Fault (MMF). This plate contact did not rupture for a long time and thus a large magnitude event is expected here. We observe a large number of earthquake repeaters in the western offshore part of the MMF while no earthquake repeaters are found toward the east south of Istanbul or onshore toward the west. These areas seem to be locked and might accumulate deformation for a future large earthquake. The zones in between show an intermediate behavior with fewer earthquake repeaters indicating less creep. These results are important for the seismic risk and hazard assessment for the mega‐city of Istanbul.
Key Points
Earthquake repeaters along the Main Marmara Fault are identified based on a newly derived homogeneous earthquake catalog spanning 15 years
Seismic creep estimated from these repeaters is highly variable along‐strike with higher creep values along the western part
A repeating earthquake sequence showing accelerated activity after a nearby Mw 5.2 earthquake is observed