Impact of increased temperature on spring wheat yield in northern China

• Published in: Food and energy security Vol. 10; no. 2; pp. 368 - 378
• Main Authors: Ye, Jun, Gao, Zhen, Wu, Xiaohua, Lu, Zhanyuan, Li, Cundong, Wang, Xiaobing, Chen, Liyu, Cui, Guohui, Yu, Meiling, Yan, Guijun, Liu, Hui, Zhang, Haibin, Wang, Zhanxian, Shi, Xuefen, Li, Yuanqing
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01-05-2021; Wiley
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Climate change; Correlation analysis; Crop production; Crop yield; Crops; Elongation; Experiments; Fertilizers; Global warming; Grain; grain yield; Growth stage; Harvest; High temperature; Life cycle; Life cycles; Productivity; Radiation; Seasons; Seedlings; Seeds; specific growing stage; Spring; Spring (season); Spring wheat; Temperature effects; Trends; Wheat; Yield; China; Inner Mongolia China
• ISSN: 2048-3694; 2048-3694
• DOI: 10.1002/fes3.283

Global warming has been reported to cause reductions in crop yields. However, it was suggested that warming temperature might benefit crop productivity in some cool areas at high latitude. In this study, we conducted a 17‐year field experiment (2002–2018) on spring wheat in Inner Mongolia. Temperature changes during each growth stage of spring wheat were investigated. Responses of spring wheat yield to temperature changes during the specific growing stages were evaluated. Average annual maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) significantly increased over the past 17 years. However, Tmax did not show obvious increase trend during spring wheat growing seasons (p = 0.0672). Furthermore, Tmax also had no distinct change before or after anthesis. Tmin significantly increased during the whole growing season, as well as in pre‐ and post‐anthesis stages. Correlation analysis indicated that Tmax in the entire growing season and post‐anthesis did not affect spring wheat yield, but high Tmax during pre‐anthesis can improve grain yield. The Tmin during the life cycle and pre‐anthesis both had positive relationship with grain yield. Moreover, elevated temperature from seedling to stem elongation can benefit tiller formation and thus increasing spike number, which contributed to the significant yield increase (p = 0.0093). Overall, climate warming affect spring wheat yield in cool area, and increasing temperature that was below the optimum temperature can benefit wheat productivity.
Temperature changes in different stages of spring wheat are inconsistent. Increasing temperature before anthesis benefits spring wheat yield. High temperature from seedling to jointing in cool area increases spike number.