Recurrent Air Quality Predictor Based on Meteorology- and Pollution-Related Factors

• Published in: IEEE transactions on industrial informatics Vol. 14; no. 9; pp. 3946 - 3955
• Main Authors: Gu, Ke, Qiao, Junfei, Lin, Weisi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Piscataway IEEE 01-09-2018; The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
• Subjects: Air pollutant concentrations (APCs); Air pollution; Air quality; Air quality prediction; Atmospheric modeling; Government; Meteorological factors; meteorological factors (MFs); Meteorology; Outdoor air quality; Particulate emissions; Predictive models; recurrent; regression; Training
• ISSN: 1551-3203; 1941-0050
• DOI: 10.1109/TII.2018.2793950

Air quality is currently arousing drastically increasing attention from the governments and populace all over the world. In this paper, we propose a heuristic recurrent air quality predictor (RAQP) to infer air quality. The RAQP exploits some key meteorology- and pollution-related variables to infer air pollutant concentrations (APCs), e.g. the fine particulate matter (PM2.5). It is natural that the meteorological factors and APCs at the current time have strong influences on air quality the next adjacent moment, that is to say, there exist high correlations between them. With this consideration, applying simple machine learners to the current meteorology- and pollution-related factors can reliably predict the air quality indices at a time later. However, owing to the nonlinear and chaotic reasons, the above correlations decline with the time interval enlarged. In such cases, it fails to forecast the air quality after several hours by only using simple machine learners and the current measurements of meteorology- and pollution-related variables. To solve the problem, our RAQP method recurrently applies the 1-h prediction model, which learns the current records of meteorology- and pollution-related factors to predict the air quality 1 h later, to then estimate the air quality after several hours. Via extensive experiments, results confirm that the RAQP predictor is superior to the relevant state-of-the-art techniques and nonrecurrent methods when applied to air quality prediction.