Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

• Published in: Diversity & distributions Vol. 26; no. 3; pp. 352 - 367
• Main Authors: Liao, Ziyan, Zhang, Lin, Nobis, Michael P., Wu, Xiaogang, Pan, Kaiwen, Wang, Keqing, Dakhil, Mohammed A., Du, Mingxi, Xiong, Qinli, Pandey, Bikram, Tian, Xianglin
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Wiley 01-03-2020; John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subjects: Abies; Abies forest; Algorithms; Anthropogenic factors; Biodiversity; Biodiversity hot spots; BIODIVERSITY RESEARCH; Changing environments; Climate change; Computer simulation; Coniferous forests; Distribution centers; Ecological niches; Ecosystems; Emission; Emissions; Entropy; Environmental changes; Geographical distribution; Geographical locations; Habitats; Hypotheses; Maximum entropy; migration ability; Migratory species; Mountains; mountains of Southwest China; Niches; Physiology; Population decline; potential distribution; Researchers; SDMs; Species; Survival; Topography; Wildlife conservation; Europe; China
• ISSN: 1366-9516; 1472-4642
• DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13018

Aim
As a prominent geographical distribution centre for the dark coniferous forests, mountains of Southwest China (MSWC) is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, posing severe challenges to the survival of dominant fir (Abies) species. Although plant's migration ability is a prerequisite for its survival in changing environments, it has often been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This study aimed to quantify the magnitude and direction of range changes by the year 2080 for six dominant fir species, that is Abies recurvata, Abies faxoniana, Abies squamata, Abies ernestii, Abies forrestii and Abies georgei, with an emphasis on exploring the relationship between migration ability and projected distributions.
Location
The mountains of Southwest China.
Methods
We applied the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm to calibrate ecological niche models and to project the climatically suitable areas (CSAs) of each species under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Additionally, we delimited future species ranges by three migration scenarios (full‐, no‐ and partial‐migration scenarios).
Results
The simulations showed the distinctive responses of the six fir species to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). By 2080, the distribution areas of Abies recurvata were projected to decline only in the no‐migration scenario but increase under the full‐ and partial‐migration scenarios, while the other five species were projected to decline in the majority of emission × migration scenarios. Fir species in the southern region were predicted to be more vulnerable to ACC due to the larger losses in CSAs and a stronger effect of the partial‐migration scenario on the newly colonized areas of this group. The studied species showed a simulated migration trend (northward and westward) to the interior Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under ACC.
Main conclusions
Benefits or losses for species under ACC depended on the geographical location, their ecological niches and migration abilities, which provide essential insights for a spatial conservation assessment of biodiversity hotspots in the future.