Asking an eyewitness to predict their later lineup performance could harm the confidence–accuracy relationship

• Published in: Applied cognitive psychology Vol. 34; no. 1; pp. 119 - 131
• Main Authors: Whittington, Jane E., Carlson, Curt A., Carlson, Maria A., Weatherford, Dawn R., Krueger, Lacy E., Jones, Alyssa R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bognor Regis Wiley 01-01-2020; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
• Subjects: Accuracy; calibration analysis; confidence and accuracy; Crime; Decision making; Encoding; eyewitness identification; eyewitness metacognition; Identification; Interviews; Lineups; Observation; Police; Prediction; Predictor Variables; Self Esteem; Witnesses
• ISSN: 0888-4080; 1099-0720
• DOI: 10.1002/acp.3599

Summary
Few studies have investigated eyewitnesses' ability to predict their later lineup performance, known as predecision confidence. We applied calibration analysis in two experiments comparing predecision confidence (immediately after encoding but prior to a lineup) to postdecision confidence (immediately after a lineup) to determine which produces a superior relationship with lineup decision accuracy. Experiment 1 (N = 177) featured a multiple‐block lineup recognition paradigm featuring several targets and lineups; Experiment 2 featured an eyewitness identification paradigm with a mock‐crime video and a single lineup for each participant (N = 855). Across both experiments, postdecision confidence discriminated well between correct and incorrect lineup decisions, but predecision confidence was a poor predictor of accuracy. Moreover, simply asking for predecision confidence weakened the postdecision confidence–accuracy relationship. This implies that police should exercise caution when interviewing eyewitnesses, as they should not be asked to predict their ability to make an accurate lineup decision.