Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and se...

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Published in:	Clinical infectious diseases Vol. 78; no. Supplement_2; pp. S83 - S92
Main Authors:	Vasconcelos, Andreia, King, Jonathan D, Nunes-Alves, Cláudio, Anderson, Roy, Argaw, Daniel, Basáñez, Maria-Gloria, Bilal, Shakir, Blok, David J, Blumberg, Seth, Borlase, Anna, Brady, Oliver J, Browning, Raiha, Chitnis, Nakul, Coffeng, Luc E, Crowley, Emily H, Cucunubá, Zulma M, Cummings, Derek A T, Davis, Christopher Neil, Davis, Emma Louise, Dixon, Matthew, Dobson, Andrew, Dyson, Louise, French, Michael, Fronterre, Claudio, Giorgi, Emanuele, Huang, Ching-I, Jain, Saurabh, James, Ananthu, Kim, Sung Hye, Kura, Klodeta, Lucianez, Ana, Marks, Michael, Mbabazi, Pamela Sabina, Medley, Graham F, Michael, Edwin, Montresor, Antonio, Mutono, Nyamai, Mwangi, Thumbi S, Rock, Kat S, Saboyá-Díaz, Martha-Idalí, Sasanami, Misaki, Schwehm, Markus, Spencer, Simon E F, Srivathsan, Ariktha, Stawski, Robert S, Stolk, Wilma A, Sutherland, Samuel A, Tchuenté, Louis-Albert Tchuem, de Vlas, Sake J, Walker, Martin, Brooker, Simon J, Hollingsworth, T Déirdre, Solomon, Anthony W, Fall, Ibrahima Socé
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	United States Oxford University Press 25-04-2024
Subjects:	COVID-19 - epidemiology COVID-19 - prevention & control Decision Making Global Health Humans Models, Theoretical Neglected Diseases - prevention & control SARS-CoV-2 Supplement Tropical Medicine World Health Organization control neglected tropical diseases elimination policy-making mathematical models
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Summary:	Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 Potential conflicts of interest. A. W. S. reports funding to their institution from Bayer AG; Carter Center; Cytiva; EISAI Co Ltd; EMS SA Brazil; Fred Hollows Foundation; Fundacion Anesvad; Fundacion Mundo Sano; Gilead Sciences, Inc; GlaxoSmithKline; Johnson and Johnson Family of Companies Contribution Fund, Inc; Merck & Co, Inc; Merck KGaA; Merck, Sharp & Dohme Corporation; Novartis; Sanofi Aventis; The Task Force for Global Health, which receives an operating budget and research funds from Pfizer, Inc, the manufacturers of Zithromax (azithromycin); and Wellcome Trust. W. A. S. reports grant funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) Modelling Consortium II (OPP1184344; ceased in 2021). Z. M. C. reports a research grant from the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) (109848) and grant funding from the Mathematical modeling and development of epidemiological analysis, estimates, and projections for priority public health diseases in the Americas region, and support for attending meetings and travel from the World Health Organization (WHO_. N. C. reports research funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation. K. K. reports support for attending meetings and travel from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF). S. E. F. S. reports research grant funding from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), The END Fund, Medical Research Council (MRC), and the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR); support for travel to the WHO meeting was provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF). D. A. T. C. reports grant funding from the US National Institutes of Health, Merck, US National Science Foundation, and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and is in a leadership or fiduciary position with the Science Advisory Board for the University of Vermont TIGR (Translational Global Infectious Disease Research) Center. D. A. reports grant funding from Bayer AG; Carter Center; Cytiva; EISAI Co Ltd; EMS SA Brazil; Fred Hollows Foundation; Fundacion Anesvad; Fundacion Mundo Sano; Gilead Sciences, Inc; GlaxoSmithKline; Johnson and Johnson Family of Companies Contribution Fund, Inc; Merck & Co, Inc; Merck KGAA; Merck, Sharp & Dohme Corporation; Novartis; Sanofi Aventis; The Task Force for Global Health, which receives an operating budget and research funds from Pfizer, Inc, the manufacturer of Zithromax (azithromycin); and Wellcome Trust. A. S. reports grant funding from CDC and Children's Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF). M.-G. B. reports funding for meetings and travel from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. S. B. reports being employed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which provides funding to the NTD Modelling Consortium and the WHO. C. N. D. reports grant funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in partnership with the Task Force for Global Health through the NTD Modelling Consortium (OPP1184344) and the MRC through the JUNIPER modeling consortium (MR/V038613/1). E. M. reports grant funding from the Internal University of South Florida, College of Public Health (COPH) grant, and they are a member of Carter Center NTD Review Programme, member of Uganda Onchocerciasis Elimination Expert Advisory Committee (UOEEAC), Ministry of Health Uganda. I. S. F., S. J., J. D. K., P. S. M., and A. M. report grant funding from Bayer AG; Carter Center; Cytiva; EISAI Co Ltd; EMS SA Brazil; Fred Hollows Foundation; Fundacion Anesvad; Fundacion Mundo Sano; Gilead Sciences, Inc; GlaxoSmithKline; Johnson and Johnson Family of Companies Contribution Fund, Inc; Merck & Co, Inc; Merck KGaA; Merck, Sharp & Dohme Corporation; Novartis; Sanofi Aventis; The Task Force for Global Health, which receives an operating budget and research funds from Pfizer, Inc, the manufacturer of Zithromax (azithromycin); and Wellcome Trust. O. J. B. reports funding from the UK MRC (MR/V031112/1). R. A. reports grant funding from CIFF and Gates Leiden Labs and stocks in GSK, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca. S. B. reports grant funding from the CIFF. J. D. K., D. A., S. J., P. S. M., A. W. S., and I. S. F. are, and S. H. K. and A. M. were, staff members of the World Health Organization. A. L. and M.-I. S.-D. are staff members of the Pan American Health Organization. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed. A. V. and J. D. K. are co-first authors. S. J. B., T. D. H., A. W. S., and I. S. F. contributed equally to this work.
ISSN:	1058-4838 1537-6591
DOI:	10.1093/cid/ciae082