Timescale-based flood typing to estimate temporal changes in flood frequencies

• Published in: Hydrological sciences journal Vol. 64; no. 15; pp. 1867 - 1892
• Main Authors: Fischer, Svenja, Schumann, Andreas, Bühler, Philipp
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Abingdon Taylor & Francis 18-11-2019; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Computer simulation; Design flood estimation; Distribution functions; Flood control; Flood estimation; flood event analysis; Flood frequency; Flood peak; flood types; Floods; Heavy rainfall; Mathematical models; Maxima; Probability distribution; Probability distribution functions; Probability theory; Quantiles; runoff processes; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Statistical models; Temporal variations
• ISSN: 0262-6667; 2150-3435
• DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1679376

The flood peak is the dominating characteristic in nearly all flood-statistical analyses. Contrary to the general assumptions of design flood estimation, the peak is not closely related to other flood characteristics. Differentiation of floods into types provides a more realistic view. Often different parts of the probability distribution function of annual flood peaks are dominated by different flood types, which raises the question how shifts in flood regimes would modify the statistics of annual maxima. To answer this, a distinction into five flood types is proposed; then, temporal changes in flood-type frequencies are investigated. We show that the frequency of floods caused by heavy rain has increased significantly in recent years. A statistical model is developed that simulates peaks for each event type by type-specific peak-volume relationships. In a simulation study, we show how changes in frequency of flood event type lead to changes in the quantiles of annual maximum series.