Forecasting mortality and DALYs from air pollution in SAARC nations

• Published in: Scientific reports Vol. 14; no. 1; pp. 25898 - 16
• Main Authors: Amer, Amna, Mushtaq, Nadia, Albalawi, Olayan, Hanif, Muhammad, Mahmoud, Emad E., Nabi, Muhammad
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 29-10-2024; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 692/700; 704/172; Adult; Air Pollutants - adverse effects; Air Pollutants - analysis; Air pollution; Air Pollution - adverse effects; Air Pollution - analysis; Air pollution control; Air pollution measurements; AOP; APM; DALYs; Deaths; Disability-Adjusted Life Years; Female; Forecasting; HAP; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; Indoor air pollution; Male; Mathematical models; Middle Aged; Middle East - epidemiology; Mortality; Mortality - trends; multidisciplinary; Neural networks; Ozone; Ozone - adverse effects; Ozone - analysis; Particulate matter; Particulate Matter - adverse effects; Particulate Matter - analysis; Pollution control; Quality-Adjusted Life Years; SAARC; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Statistical analysis; Middle East; Maldives; Pakistan; Deaths; AOP; SAARC; DALYs; HAP; APM
• ISSN: 2045-2322; 2045-2322
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-76760-9

This study investigates the projected impact of air pollution on mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) across SAARC countries. Utilizing Time Series and Machine Learning methodologies such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Neural Network, the research aims to accurately forecast the mortality and DALYs attributed to air pollution from 2020 to 2030. Statistical analyses reveal a consistent upward trend in deaths and DALYs during the forecasting period, primarily driven by Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution (APM) and Ambient Ozone Pollution (AOP). Comparing the predictive accuracy of the models, Neural Network outperformed other methods, as indicated by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values. Specifically, the study finds that deaths and DALYs due to Ambient Particulate Matter pollution are least prevalent in the Maldives, while India and Pakistan exhibit the highest rates, and deaths and DALYs due to Ambient Ozone pollution are lowest in the Maldives and highest in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Moreover, deaths and DALYs attributed to Household Air Pollution (HAP) are lowest in Pakistan and highest in Nepal. These findings underscore the urgent need for air pollution control measures and informed policymaking in SAARC countries to mitigate the escalating health burden associated with air pollution.