Harmful Ostreopsis cf. ovata blooms could extend in time span with climate change in the Western Mediterranean Sea

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 947; p. 174726
• Main Authors: Fabri-Ruiz, S., Berdalet, E., Ulses, C., Somot, S., Vila, M., Lemée, R., Irisson, J.-O.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 15-10-2024; Elsevier
• Subjects: Bioclimatology; CDF-t; Climate Change; Dinoflagellida; Earth Sciences; Ecological habitat model; Ecology, environment; Ecosystem; Environmental Monitoring; Harmful Algal Bloom; Life Sciences; Mediterranean Sea; Oceanography; Sciences of the Universe; Seawater temperature; Mediterranean Sea; Ecological habitat model; Climate change; Harmful algal bloom; CDF-t; Seawater temperature
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174726

Fast environmental changes and high coastal human pressures and impacts threaten the Mediterranean Sea. Over the last decade, recurrent blooms of the harmful dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata have been recorded in many Mediterranean beaches. These microalgae produce toxins that affect marine organisms and human health. Understanding the environmental conditions that influence the appearance and magnitude of O. cf. ovata blooms, as well as how climate change will modify its future distribution and dynamics, is crucial for predicting and managing their effects. This study investigates whether the spatio-temporal distribution of this microalga and the frequency of its blooms could be altered in future climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Western basin. For the first time, an ecological habitat model (EHM) is forced by physico-chemical climate change simulations at high-resolution, under the strong greenhouse gas emission trajectory (RCP8.5). It allows to characterize how O. cf. ovata may respond to projected conditions and how its distribution could shift over a wide spatial scale, in this plausible future. Before being applied to the EHM, future climate simulations are further refined by using a statistical adaptation method (Cumulative Distribution Function transform) to improve the predictions robustness. Temperature (optimum 23–26 °C), high salinity (>38 psu) and high inorganic nutrient concentrations (nitrate >0.25 mmol N·m−3 and phosphate >0.035 mmol P·m−3) drive O. cf. ovata abundances. High spatial disparities in future abundances are observed. Namely, O. cf. ovata abundances could increase on the Mediterranean coasts of France, Spain and the Adriatic Sea while a decrease is expected in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The bloom period could be extended, starting earlier and continuing later in the year. From a methodological point of view, this study highlights best practices of EHMs in the context of climate change to identify sensitive areas for current and future harmful algal blooms.
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•Climate change impacts on O. cf. ovata dynamics in the Mediterranean is investigated.•Temporal changes in T° and chlorophyll are the best predictors of abundance.•In the future, O. cf. ovata blooms could start earlier and finish later in the year.•O. cf. ovata abundance are expected to rise on the French, Spanish, and Adriatic coasts.•These changes may negatively affect ecosystems, health, and the economy.