A mathematical model applied to investigate the potential impact of global warming on marine ecosystems

• Published in: Applied Mathematical Modelling Vol. 101; pp. 19 - 37
• Main Authors: Mandal, Sajib, Islam, Md. Sirajul, Biswas, Md. Haider Ali, Akter, Sonia
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Elsevier Inc 01-01-2022; Elsevier BV
• Subjects: Carbon dioxide; Ecosystems; Environmental management; Fisheries; Fisheries management; Global warming; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Marine ecosystem; Mathematical model; Mathematical models; Numerical analysis; Numerical simulations; Parameters; Plankton; Strategic management; Numerical simulations; Numerical analysis; Marine ecosystem; Global warming; 75D05; Mathematical model; Greenhouse gases; 93A30; 81T80
• ISSN: 0307-904X; 1088-8691; 0307-904X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2021.08.026

•Impact of global warming on marine ecosystems described via mathematical modeling.•Model formulation, Analysis, Simulations, and Case study approach in detail.•Global warming is rapidly damaging marine plankton along with fishery resources.•Marine plankton can enrich fishery resources by reducing global warming.•The future of marine ecosystems as a result of rapid global warming.
A mathematical model with time-varying parameters is newly proposed to describe the potential effects of rapid global warming on marine ecosystems. The time-varying parameters are assumed to vary in time, for example, environmental factors or a change in marine organisms. The existence of the proposed model is verified, as well as the stability of each equilibrium point is investigated. Beside, simulations, as well as a case study, are also carried out to justify the findings of this study comparing with others. It is found that global warming, because of the rapid concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs), is leading marine ecosystems to an imbalanced situation by reducing significantly the marine plankton and fishery resources. Moreover, it is shown that if the density of marine plankton or its ability to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) can be increased, it can improve marine fishery resources by reducing global warming. Beside, this study could explain how marine ecosystems may change in the future as a result of rapid global warming. This study predicts that if the present situation of rapid global warming continues for the next 50 years unabated, it can damage marine ecosystems especially fishery resources in the long run. Overall, this study establishes a mathematical relationship between the environment and marine ecosystems that could contribute to environmental and fisheries management.
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