Predicting Order Due Date

• Published in: Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering Vol. 37; no. 6; pp. 1751 - 1766
• Main Authors: Berlec, Tomaž, Starbek, Marko
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer-Verlag 01-09-2012
• Subjects: Assembly; Confidence intervals; Due dates; Engineering; Humanities and Social Sciences; Joining; Lead time; multidisciplinary; Research Article - Systems Engineering; Sales; Science; Workplaces; Distribution function; Predicting; Sampling; Due date; Lead times
• ISSN: 1319-8025; 2191-4281
• DOI: 10.1007/s13369-012-0279-1

The paper presents a procedure for predicting due date of production orders on the basis of past actual lead time data. A client for a particular production order will select the best bidder. It is rather risky to make a bid just on the basis of sales experience. A procedure is therefore proposed by which, on the basis of the actual lead times of operational and assembly orders processed in the company’s workplaces in the past, the expected lead time of a planned production order can be predicted. The result of the proposed procedure for predicting lead times is an empirical distribution of possible lead times for a production order. On the basis of this distribution, it is possible to predict the probable lead time of a production order, taking into account a confidence interval. Using the proposed procedure, the sales department can make a delivery time prediction for the customer of the planned production order. As an illustration of using the procedure for predicting lead times of production orders, a case study is presented: the lead time of a production order for a “linking element of an oil vent” was predicted; the tool is manufactured by a Slovenian company.