Recording of 'COVID-19 vaccine declined': a cohort study on 57.9 million National Health Service patients' records in situ using OpenSAFELY, England, 8 December 2020 to 25 May 2021

• Published in: Euro surveillance : bulletin européen sur les maladies transmissibles Vol. 27; no. 33
• Main Authors: Curtis, Helen J, Inglesby, Peter, MacKenna, Brian, Croker, Richard, Hulme, William J, Rentsch, Christopher T, Bhaskaran, Krishnan, Mathur, Rohini, Morton, Caroline E, Bacon, Sebastian Cj, Smith, Rebecca M, Evans, David, Mehrkar, Amir, Tomlinson, Laurie, Walker, Alex J, Bates, Christopher, Hickman, George, Ward, Tom, Morley, Jessica, Cockburn, Jonathan, Davy, Simon, Williamson, Elizabeth J, Eggo, Rosalind M, Parry, John, Hester, Frank, Harper, Sam, O'Hanlon, Shaun, Eavis, Alex, Jarvis, Richard, Avramov, Dima, Griffiths, Paul, Fowles, Aaron, Parkes, Nasreen, Evans, Stephen Jw, Douglas, Ian J, Smeeth, Liam, Goldacre, Ben
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Sweden Centre Europeen pour la Surveillance Epidemiologique du SIDA (European Centre for the Epidemiological Monitoring of AIDS) 18-08-2022; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
• Subjects: Cohort analysis; Cohort Studies; COVID-19 - epidemiology; COVID-19 - prevention & control; COVID-19 Vaccines; England - epidemiology; Health care; Humans; Immunization; Primary care; Retrospective Studies; State Medicine; Vaccination; England; United Kingdom > UK; COVID-19; vaccine hesitancy; SARS-CoV-2; NHS England; vaccination
• ISSN: 1560-7917; 1025-496X; 1560-7917
• DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.33.2100885

BackgroundPriority patients in England were offered COVID-19 vaccination by mid-April 2021. Codes in clinical record systems can denote the vaccine being declined.AimWe describe records of COVID-19 vaccines being declined, according to clinical and demographic factors.MethodsWith the approval of NHS England, we conducted a retrospective cohort study between 8 December 2020 and 25 May 2021 with primary care records for 57.9 million patients using OpenSAFELY, a secure health analytics platform. COVID-19 vaccination priority patients were those aged ≥ 50 years or ≥ 16 years clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) or 'at risk'. We describe the proportion recorded as declining vaccination for each group and stratified by clinical and demographic subgroups, subsequent vaccination and distribution of clinical code usage across general practices.ResultsOf 24.5 million priority patients, 663,033 (2.7%) had a decline recorded, while 2,155,076 (8.8%) had neither a vaccine nor decline recorded. Those recorded as declining, who were subsequently vaccinated (n = 125,587; 18.9%) were overrepresented in the South Asian population (32.3% vs 22.8% for other ethnicities aged ≥ 65 years). The proportion of declining unvaccinated patients was highest in CEV (3.3%), varied strongly with ethnicity (black 15.3%, South Asian 5.6%, white 1.5% for ≥ 80 years) and correlated positively with increasing deprivation.ConclusionsClinical codes indicative of COVID-19 vaccinations being declined are commonly used in England, but substantially more common among black and South Asian people, and in more deprived areas. Qualitative research is needed to determine typical reasons for recorded declines, including to what extent they reflect patients actively declining.