Prospects of green hydrogen in Poland: A techno-economic analysis using a Monte Carlo approach

• Published in: International journal of hydrogen energy Vol. 47; no. 9; pp. 5779 - 5796
• Main Authors: Benalcazar, Pablo, Komorowska, Aleksandra
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 29-01-2022
• Subjects: Green hydrogen; Hydrogen economy; LCOH; Levelized cost of hydrogen; Monte Carlo simulation; Uncertainty; Green hydrogen; Levelized cost of hydrogen; Uncertainty; LCOH; Hydrogen economy; Monte Carlo simulation
• ISSN: 0360-3199; 1879-3487
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2021.12.001

The European Commission's plan to decarbonize the economy using innovative energy carriers has brought into question whether the national targets for developing electrolysis technologies are sufficiently ambitious to establish a local hydrogen production industry. While several research works have explored the economic viability of individual green hydrogen production and storage facilities in the Western European Member States, only a few studies have examined the prospects of large-scale green hydrogen production units in Poland. In this study, a Monte Carlo-based model is proposed and developed to investigate the underlying economic and technical factors that may impact the success of the Polish green hydrogen strategy. Moreover, it analyzes the economics of renewable hydrogen at different stages of technological development and market adoption. This is achieved by characterizing the local meteorological conditions of Polish NUTS-2 regions and comparing the levelized cost of hydrogen in such regions in 2020, 2030, and 2050. The results show the geographical locations where the deployment of large-scale hydrogen production units will be most cost effective.
•The prospects of green hydrogen production in Polish NUTS-2 regions are analyzed.•A Monte Carlo-based model for the assessment of LCOH is proposed.•With today's PEM technology, the LCOH could be in the range of €6.37 to €13.48/kg.•By 2030, the LCOH of a 6-MW PEM electrolyzer could decrease to €2.33–4.30/kg.•In 2050, the LCOH of a 20-MW PEM electrolyzer could fall to €1.23–2.03/kg.