Side-Length-Independent Motif (SLIM): Motif Discovery and Volatility Analysis in Time Series—SAX, MDL and the Matrix Profile

• Published in: Forecasting Vol. 4; no. 1; pp. 219 - 237
• Main Authors: Cartwright, Eoin, Crane, Martin, Ruskin, Heather J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01-03-2022
• Subjects: Algorithms; Approximation; Big Data; Crude oil prices; Data analysis; Data mining; Energy industry; financial time series; Flexibility; Globalization; Machine learning; matrix profile; minimum description length (MDL); Pattern analysis; symbolic aggregate approximation (SAX); Time series; time series motifs; Trends; Values; Volatility
• ISSN: 2571-9394; 2571-9394
• DOI: 10.3390/forecast4010013

As the availability of big data-sets becomes more widespread so the importance of motif (or repeated pattern) identification and analysis increases. To date, the majority of motif identification algorithms that permit flexibility of sub-sequence length do so over a given range, with the restriction that both sides of an identified sub-sequence pair are of equal length. In this article, motivated by a better localised representation of variations in time series, a novel approach to the identification of motifs is discussed, which allows for some flexibility in side-length. The advantages of this flexibility include improved recognition of localised similar behaviour (manifested as motif shape) over varying timescales. As well as facilitating improved interpretation of localised volatility patterns and a visual comparison of relative volatility levels of series at a globalised level. The process described extends and modifies established techniques, namely SAX, MDL and the Matrix Profile, allowing advantageous properties of leading algorithms for data analysis and dimensionality reduction to be incorporated and future-proofed. Although this technique is potentially applicable to any time series analysis, the focus here is financial and energy sector applications where real-world examples examining S&P500 and Open Power System Data are also provided for illustration.